Study on the Acceptability of Natural Disaster Risk in Hunan Province

Natural disasters are one of the main disasters faced by Hunan Province, and determining the acceptable level of natural disaster risks is of great significance to the sustainable development of the province. By analyzing the data of the number of disaster death and economic losses, total population, and GDP in Hunan Province from 2010 to 2020, and referring to relevant domestic and foreign researches, a study on the acceptable level of natural disaster risk was carried out.The willingness coefficient β=0.01 is taken to fix the acceptable risk standard for personal life; the per capita GDP is used to quantify the acceptable economic risk for individuals; according to the minimum reasonable and feasible criteria, models of acceptable criteria for social life and economic risk are respectively constructed.The results show that the personal acceptable and tolerable life risks are 10⁻⁶/a and 10⁻⁵/a respectively, that the personal acceptable economic risk index is 0.01, i.e. the acceptable risk range of personal economic risk does not exceed 1% of per capita GDP; and that the probability of 100 deaths due to the disaster greater than 10⁻⁹, and the probability of economic loss of 1 billion yuan greater than 10⁻², are unacceptable risks.The research results can be used to assist the assessment, decision-making and management of natural disaster risks in Hunan Province.