Comparison Study in Landslide Susceptibility Assessment by Using Data-driven models: A Case Study from the Middle Stream of the Yellow River
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摘要:
准确的滑坡易发性图有益于管理部门开展土地利用规划和防灾减灾工作，目前已经成为了中国滑坡风险评估与管控的重点研究领域。本研究旨在对比分析不同数据驱动模型在区域滑坡易发性评估中的表现，以黄河中游流域为研究区，通过详细的野外调查结合遥感图像视觉解释，获得了包括684个历史滑坡点的数据库。选取了14个评价因子，利用Pearson相关系数分析了这些因素之间的相关性，应用C5.0决策树算法确定了各因素的重要性。选取了3种典型的数据驱动模型（加权信息量（WIV），支持向量机（SVM）和随机森林（RF））进行了区域滑坡易发性评价，并通过受试者工作特征曲线（ROC）及其曲线下面积AUC值来验证模型的性能。结果表明，距道路的距离、距河流的距离以及坡度是该地区滑坡发生最重要的贡献因素。大多数历史滑坡都发生在滑坡易发性图中的中等和高易发区内。SVM和RF模型获得的高/极高易发区内的滑坡点均超过总滑坡点的70%。RF模型表现最好，高易发性区占全区面积的21.9%，滑坡数量占全部历史滑坡点的90.5%。AUC精度的比较表明，RF模型的准确性高于其他两种模型：RF的AUC为0.904，而WIV和SVM的AUC分别为0.845和0.847。
Abstract:Accurate landslide susceptibility maps are beneficial for management departments to carry out land use planning and disaster prevention and mitigation. It has been an important field in the landslide risk assessment and management in China. This study aims to compare and analyze the performance of different data-driven models in the assessment of regional landslide susceptibility. The middle reaches of the Yellow river were selected as the study area, and a database including 684 historical landslide points was obtained through detailed field investigation combined with visual interpretation of remote sensing images. 14 evaluation factors were selected, Pearson correlation coefficient was used to analyze the correlation between these factors, and the C5.0 decision tree algorithm was used to determine the importance of each factor. Three typical data-driven models (Weighted Information Volume (WIV), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Random Forest (RF)) were selected to evaluate the regional landslide susceptibility, and the performance of the models were verified by the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and the area AUC value under the curve. The results show that the distance from the road, the distance from the river and the slope are the most important contributing factors to the occurrence of landslides in this area. The majority of historical landslides occurred in the moderate and high susceptibility zones on the landslide susceptibility map. The landslide points in the high/very high susceptibility area obtained by SVM and RF models exceed 70% of the total landslide points. The RF model performed the best, with the high susceptibility area accounting for 21.9% of the area and the number of landslides accounting for 90.5% of all historical landslide points. A comparison of AUC accuracy shows that the RF model is more accurate than the other two models: RF has an AUC of 0.904, while WIV and SVM have AUCs of 0.845 and 0.847 respectively.
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Keywords:
- landslide susceptibility /
- weight /
- data-driven model /
- decision tree /
- environmental factors /
- random forest
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图 2 研究区易发性评价的环境因子
（a）. 高程；（b）. 坡度；（c）. 坡向；（d）. 平面曲率；（e）. 剖面曲率；（f） .地表粗糙度；（g） .岩性；（h） .地质构造；（i） .NDWI；（j） .到河流的距离；（k）. NDVI；（l）. 土地利用；（m） .降雨量；（n）. 到道路的距离
Figure 2. Environmental factors of landslide susceptibility assessment
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图 3 训练集预测结果（a）和 测试集预测结果（b）图
Figure 3. (a) The training set prediction results and (b) test set prediction results.
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图 4 RF模型性能分析（a）、训练集预测结果（b）和测试集预测结果（c）
Figure 4. (a) The RF model performance analysis, (b) training set prediction results and (c) test set prediction results
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图 5 从 C5.0 决策树模型中获得的因素的重要性
Figure 5. The importance of factors obtained from the C5.0 decision tree model
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图 6 从不同模型获得的LSI图：WIV模型（a），SVM模型（b）和RF模型（c）
Figure 6. LSI maps obtained from different models: (a) WIV model, (b) SVM model and (c) RF model
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图 7 从不同模型获得的滑坡易发性图：WIV模型（a），SVM模型（b）和RF模型（c）
Figure 7. Landslide susceptibility maps obtained from different models: (a) WIV model, (b) SVM model and (c) RF model
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图 8 历史滑坡各易发性等级统计指标：WIV模型（a），SVM模型（b）和RF模型（c）
Figure 8. Statistical indicators of the historical landslides in each susceptibility level: (a) WIV model, (b) SVM model and (c) RF model
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图 9 滑坡易发性评估中三种数据驱动模型的ROC曲线及精度
Figure 9. The ROC curves and accuracy of the three data-driven models in landslide susceptibility assessment
表 1 滑坡环境因子 IV 的计算结果
Table 1 Calculation of the IV of the landslide environmental factors
环境因子 值 Ni/N Si/S 密度比 信息量 权重 加权信息量 排名 高程 （m） 594～774 0.39 0.39 1.00 0.90 0.073 0.0657 9 774～901 0.22 0.76 0.29 −0.33 0.02409 61 901～ 1028 0.26 0.69 0.38 −0.07 0.00511 40 1028 ～1183 0.11 0.51 0.21 −0.67 0.04891 66 1183 ～1510 0.01 0.08 0.16 −0.92 0.06716 68 坡度 （°） 0～7 0.14 0.19 0.74 −0.30 0.107 − 0.0321 62 7～12 0.20 0.29 0.68 −0.39 0.04173 64 12～17 0.26 0.28 0.96 −0.05 0.00535 42 17～23 0.25 0.18 1.39 0.33 0.03531 15 23～59 0.14 0.06 2.44 0.89 0.09523 4 坡向 （°） 北（0～22.5） 0.09 0.06 1.56 0.45 0.031 0.01395 22 东北（22.5～67.5） 0.13 0.12 1.13 0.12 0.00372 28 东（67.5～112.5） 0.15 0.13 1.14 0.13 0.00403 27 东南（112.5～157.5） 0.10 0.12 0.79 −0.23 0.00713 44 南（157.5～202.5） 0.12 0.13 0.94 −0.06 0.00186 34 西南（202.5～247.5） 0.10 0.15 0.68 −0.38 0.01178 51 西（247.5～292.5） 0.09 0.14 0.68 −0.39 0.01209 52 西北（292.5～337.5） 0.14 0.11 1.27 0.24 0.00744 25 北（337.5-360） 0.08 0.05 1.57 0.45 0.01395 22 平面曲率 −2.824～−0.345 0.06 0.06 1.00 −0.16 0.031 0.00496 38 −0.345～−0.097 0.22 0.25 0.88 −0.12 0.00372 36 −0.097～0.095 0.35 0.34 1.03 0.03 0.00093 31 0.095～0.343 0.31 0.27 1.13 0.12 0.00372 28 0.343～4.227 0.07 0.07 1.00 −0.10 − 0.0031 35 剖面曲率 −3.908～−0.393 0.05 0.06 0.85 −0.16 0.031 0.00496 38 −0.393～−0.140 0.16 0.20 0.79 −0.23 0.00713 44 −0.140～0.082 0.28 0.37 0.77 −0.26 0.00806 47 0.082～0.367 0.36 0.29 1.23 0.20 0.0062 26 0.367～4.199 0.15 0.08 1.84 0.61 0.01891 18 地表粗糙度 1～1.023 0.34 0.48 0.69 −0.37 0.042 0.01554 55 1.023～1.052 0.33 0.32 1.02 0.02 0.00084 32 1.052～1.097 0.21 0.15 1.41 0.35 0.0147 21 1.097～1.199 0.09 0.04 2.23 0.80 0.0336 16 1.199～1.919 0.03 0.01 3.00 2.15 0.0903 8 岩性 沙壤土 0.16 0.19 0.88 −0.13 0.052 0.00676 43 黏土 0.33 0.43 0.77 −0.26 0.01352 53 红黏土 0.06 0.03 2.00 0.50 0.026 17 砂岩 0.43 0.31 1.38 0.32 0.01664 19 石灰岩 0.02 0.04 0.49 −0.71 0.03692 63 距断层距离 （m） 0～ 2709.069 0.37 0.28 1.30 0.26 0.049 0.01274 24 2709.069 ～5727.746 0.29 0.28 1.03 0.03 0.00147 30 5727.746 ～9056.030 0.16 0.19 0.83 −0.18 0.00882 48 9056.030 ～13003.531 0.11 0.16 0.72 −0.32 0.01568 56 13003.531 ～19814.904 0.07 0.09 0.79 −0.23 0.01127 50 NDWI −0.475～−0.235 0.06 0.10 0.56 −0.58 0.038 0.02204 60 −0.235～−0.196 0.25 0.37 0.69 −0.38 0.01444 54 −0.196～−0.151 0.47 0.43 1.09 −0.02 0.00076 33 −0.151～0.008 0.13 0.06 2.19 1.07 0.04066 11 0.008～0.240 0.09 0.04 2.27 2.47 0.09386 5 NDVI −0.198～0.008 0.02 0.01 2.00 1.13 0.038 0.04294 10 0.008～0.135 0.31 0.20 1.53 0.43 0.01634 20 0.135～0.180 0.35 0.40 0.88 −0.13 0.00494 37 0.180～0.235 0.26 0.30 0.87 −0.14 0.00532 41 0.235～0.536 0.05 0.09 0.57 −0.57 0.02166 59 距河流距离 （m） 0～100 0.35 0.15 2.33 0.85 0.136 0.1156 3 100～200 0.16 0.12 1.32 0.28 0.03808 14 200～300 0.11 0.13 0.86 −0.15 − 0.0204 58 300～500 0.14 0.21 0.66 −0.41 0.05576 67 500～ 1776.851 0.23 0.38 0.60 −0.51 0.06936 69 距道路距离 （m） 0～100 0.72 0.16 4.56 1.52 0.159 0.24168 1 100～200 0.12 0.12 0.95 −0.05 0.00795 46 200～300 0.05 0.12 0.41 −0.90 − 0.1431 71 300～500 0.06 0.18 0.34 −1.07 0.17013 72 500～ 2835.437 0.05 0.42 0.12 −2.11 0.33549 74 土地利用 水面 0.03 0.02 1.65 0.50 0.08 0.04 12 村庄 0.17 0.05 3.22 1.17 0.0936 6 林地 0.24 0.28 0.87 −0.14 − 0.0112 49 草地 0.28 0.48 0.58 −0.54 − 0.0432 65 农田 0.29 0.17 1.66 0.50 0.04 12 降雨 （mm） ＜400 0.10 0.22 0.47 −1.45 0.132 − 0.1914 73 400～425 0.22 0.11 1.99 0.69 0.09108 7 425～450 0.12 0.13 0.87 −0.14 0.01848 57 450～475 0.10 0.22 0.44 −0.82 0.10824 70 ＞475 0.46 0.33 1.40 1.57 0.20724 2 
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