ISSN 1009-6248CN 61-1149/P 双月刊

主管单位:中国地质调查局

主办单位:中国地质调查局西安地质调查中心
中国地质学会

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    基于集成学习模型的县域地震滑坡易发性研究

    Research on County-Level Earthquake-Induced Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Based on Ensemble Learning Models

    • 摘要: 在县域地震滑坡易发性建模领域,对集成学习模型的比较分析研究尚显不足。本研究以泸定县为例,基于历史记录、遥感数据及现场调研收集了502个滑坡事件的详细信息,构建了样本数据库。选定了包括数字高程模型(DEM)、坡度、坡向、剖面曲率、平面曲率、地形位置指数、岩性、与道路、断层、河流及震源距离和土地利用在内的12个关键影响因素。通过对这些因素进行共线性检测后,采用贝叶斯优化方法优化了AdaBoost、GBDT、XGBoost、LightGBM和CatBoost等集成学习模型,进而构建了滑坡易发性评估体系。通过ROC曲线和频率比值对比评估了各模型的准确率和预测精度。研究结果显示,经贝叶斯优化后,所有模型性能均得到显著提升,其中BO-GBDT模型的AUC值提高了7.4%。频率比值分析进一步表明,BO-XGBoost模型在高易发性级别的识别能力最强,频率比值达到13.73,表现出其优越的风险区识别能力。尽管BO-GBDT在AUC值上略显优势(0.974),但其在高易发性级别的识别上频率比值仅为10.14。因此,选择的BO-XGBoost模型揭示了高易发区主要集中在大渡河沿岸及其附近的城镇和交通线路区,而东部山区的滑坡易发性相对较低。研究成果为未来研究和防灾减灾工作提供了重要的指导意见。

       

      Abstract: In the field of modeling the susceptibility of county-level earthquake-induced landslides, comparative analysis research on ensemble learning models is still insufficient. This study takes Luding County as an example, where detailed information on 502 landslide events was collected based on historical records, remote sensing data, and field surveys to construct a sample database. Twelve key influencing factors were selected, including digital elevation model (DEM), slope, aspect, profile curvature, plan curvature, topographic position index, lithology, and the distances to roads, faults, rivers, and seismic sources, as well as land use. After conducting collinearity tests on these factors, the Bayesian optimization method was used to optimize ensemble learning models such as AdaBoost, GBDT, XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost, thereby constructing a landslide susceptibility assessment system. The accuracy and predictive precision of each model were evaluated through ROC curves and frequency ratio comparison. The results show that after Bayesian optimization, the performance of all models was significantly improved, with the BO-GBDT model's AUC value increasing by 7.4%. Frequency ratio analysis further indicated that the BO-XGBoost model had the strongest identification capability at high susceptibility levels, with a frequency ratio of 13.73, demonstrating its superior risk area identification capability. Although the BO-GBDT model had a slight advantage in AUC value (0.974), its frequency ratio at high susceptibility levels was only 10.14. Therefore, the selected BO-XGBoost model reveals that high-susceptibility areas are mainly concentrated along the Dadu River and its nearby towns and transportation routes, while the landslide susceptibility in the eastern mountainous area is relatively low, providing important guidance for future research and disaster prevention and mitigation efforts.

       

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