ISSN 1009-6248CN 61-1149/P 双月刊

主管单位:中国地质调查局

主办单位:中国地质调查局西安地质调查中心
中国地质学会

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    基于XGBoost-MTL的深层致密砂岩储层物性预测研究

    Research on Deep Tight Sandstone Parameter Prediction Based on XGBoost-MTL

    • 摘要: 深层致密砂岩储层物性参数的准确预测对于储层评价和“甜点”预测至关重要,但现有模型难以充分刻画参数之间复杂的非线性关系,且无法实现多参数同时预测。笔者以塔里木盆地库车坳陷侏罗系阳霞组致密砂岩储层为例,对岩心开展高压压汞和核磁共振实验,提取储层微观参数,选取平均孔喉半径、排驱压力、分形维数和分选系数作为特征参数,在单任务XGBoost模型基础上引入了多任务学习(MTL)框架,并使用注意力机制优化特征选择能力,提出了一种适用于小样本数据的基于极限梯度提升(XGBoost)与多任务学习(MTL)的联合预测模型,开展渗透率和孔隙度的同步预测,并设置多组对比实验,从预测精度、误差指标等多角度评估模型性能。研究结果表明:①高压压汞和核磁共振分形维数曲线都呈现出“三段式”特征,指示深层致密砂岩储层具有典型的多重分形特征;②XGBoost-MTL模型在致密砂岩孔渗预测中,预测值与真实值相关性指数分别高达0.91和0.95,均方根误差与单任务XGBoost模型相比降低约70%,表现出良好的预测效果;③研究区孔喉尺度以中孔为主,运用注意力分数方法,发现分形维数对储层渗透率影响最为显著,平均孔喉半径对孔隙度影响最为显著。本研究为深层致密砂岩储层物性预测提供了一种可靠的数据驱动方法,研究成果已在库车坳陷阳霞组储层评价中成功应用,预测误差控制在8.3%以内,对深层致密砂岩气藏高效开发具有重要指导意义。

       

      Abstract: Accurate prediction of deep tight sandstone reservoir property parameters is essential for reservoir evaluation and sweet spot prediction. However, existing models struggle to fully characterize the complex nonlinear relationships between parameters and cannot achieve simultaneous prediction of multiple parameters. Taking the Yangxia Formation tight sandstone reservoir in the Kuqa Depression of the Tarim Basin's Jurassic System as a case study, this paper conducted high-pressure mercury intrusion and nuclear magnetic resonance experiments on cores to extract reservoir micro-parameters. Average pore throat radius, displacement pressure, fractal dimension, and sorting coefficient are selected as feature parameters. A multi-task learning (MTL) framework was introduced based on a single-task XGBoost model, with an attention mechanism employed to enhance feature selection capabilities. This study proposes a joint prediction model combining Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and MTL, suitable for small-sample datasets, to simultaneously predict permeability and porosity. Multiple comparative experiments were conducted to evaluate model performance from multiple perspectives, including prediction accuracy and error metrics. The research findings indicate: ① Both high-pressure mercury intrusion porosimetry and NMR fractal dimension curves exhibit a "three-segment" characteristic, indicating that deep tight sandstone reservoirs possess typical multifractal features; ② The XGBoost-MTL model achieved high correlation coefficients of 0.91 and 0.95 for predicted and actual values in pore-permeability prediction, respectively. Its root mean square error was reduced by approximately 70% compared to the single-task XGBoost model, demonstrating excellent predictive performance; ③ The pore throat scale in the study area is dominated by medium-sized pores. Using the attention score method, it was found that the fractal dimension has the most significant impact on reservoir permeability, while the average pore throat radius has the most significant impact on porosity. This study presents a reliable data-driven approach for predicting the physical properties of deep tight sandstone reservoirs. The findings have been successfully applied in reservoir evaluation of the Yangxia Formation in the Kuqa Depression, with prediction errors controlled within 8.3%. This approach holds significant implications for the efficient development of deep tight sandstone gas reservoirs.

       

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