ISSN 1009-6248CN 61-1149/P 双月刊

主管单位:中国地质调查局

主办单位:中国地质调查局西安地质调查中心
中国地质学会

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    基于机器学习算法TabPFN的滑坡易发性评价及可解释性分析

    Landslide Susceptibility Assessment with TabPFN under Limited Sample Scenarios and Its Interpretability Analysis

    • 摘要: 滑坡易发性评价对于山区灾害防控具有重要意义,但传统模型在小样本数据上的泛化能力往往受限,且线性模型难以捕捉复杂的因子交互作用。TabPFN机器学习模型具有免调参和小样本强泛化优势,为破解上述建模难题提供了思路。本研究以黄山市为研究区,综合选取地形地貌、地质构造、水文条件和人类活动等4类共14项评价因子构建滑坡易发性指标体系,基于736个历史滑坡点,在距滑坡点1 km外的区域选取等量非滑坡样本,构建正负样本1∶1的平衡数据集。在此基础上,引入TabPFN模型开展滑坡易发性建模,并结合SHAP方法对模型结果进行可解释性分析。结果表明,与基线模型相比,TabPFN在准确率(0.903)、精确率(0.965)、召回率(0.841)、F1值(0.899)及AUC(0.964)等指标上综合表现最优,表现出更强的泛化能力与对复杂关系建模优势;SHAP解释结果进一步揭示了距道路距离、NDVI与岩性是研究区滑坡空间分布的主要驱动因子,其中,靠近道路区域滑坡易发性显著升高,反映出人类工程活动对边坡稳定性的扰动作用突出,较高的植被覆盖度对滑坡发生具有抑制作用,不同岩性条件下滑坡敏感性差异显著,体现了地质背景的基础控制作用。本研究结合TabPFN机器学习模型与SHAP方法,实现了滑坡易发性的高精度预测与可解释性分析,弥补了传统“黑箱”模型难以揭示成灾机理的不足,为山地城市滑坡风险评估提供了兼具准确性与解释力的技术途径。

       

      Abstract: Landslide susceptibility assessment is crucial for the disaster mitigation in mountainous regions; however, traditional models often have limited generalization on small-sample datasets, and linear approaches struggle to capture the complex interactions among influencing factors. This study introduces the TabPFN machine learning model, which, with its hyperparameter-free nature and strong generalization advantage under small-sample conditions, provides a novel approach for overcoming the modeling bottlenecks. Taking Huangshan City as the study area, based on 736 landslide points, an equal number of non-landslide samples were selected from areas beyond 1 km of these points to construct a balanced dataset with a 1:1 ratio of positive to negative samples,this research establishes a landslide susceptibility indicator system by systematically selecting 14 evaluation factors across four categories: topography, geology, hydrology, and human activity. Building upon this foundation,The study introduces the TabPFN model for landslide susceptibility evaluation, and employs SHAP to analyze the underlying driving mechanisms. The results show that, compared with baseline models, TabPFN achieves the best overall performance in terms of accuracy (0.903), precision (0.965), recall (0.841), F1-score (0.899), and AUC (0.964), demonstrating stronger generalization capability and advantages in modeling complex relationships. Furthermore, SHAP analysis reveals that distance to roads, NDVI, and lithology are the primary driving factors influencing the spatial distribution of landslides, reflecting the fundamental pattern wherein human disturbance, vegetation cover, and geological conditions collectively govern landslide development, Specifically, landslide susceptibility increases significantly in areas proximal to roads, reflecting the prominent disturbance of human engineering activities on slope stability. Higher vegetation coverage exerts a notable inhibitory effect on landslide occurrence, while landslide sensitivity varies markedly across different lithological conditions, underscoring the fundamental controlling role of the geological setting. This study integrates the TabPFN machine learning model with SHAP-based interpretability to achieve both high-accuracy prediction and interpretability analysis of landslide susceptibility, It overcomes the shortcomings of traditional "black box" models in revealing the mechanisms of disaster formation, providing a technical pathway for landslide risk assessment in mountainous cities that ensures both precision and explanatory insight.

       

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