Evaluation of Resource Environment Carrying Capacity: Theoretical Method and Practice
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摘要: 资源环境承载力评价是国土空间规划和三区三线划定的基础，评价理论与方法越来越受到各界的关注，但尚未形成完备的理论框架。本研究引入短板理论、风险理论和边际理论，构建资源环境承载力评价的理论框架与技术方法，并以陕北黄土高原绥德县为研究区开展实证研究。基于短板理论，识别区域重大资源环境问题，遴选1~3个制约性因素；基于边际理论，以资源开发利用利润最大化或无利润作为资源承载力评价标准，开展资源承载力评价；基于风险理论，以人类活动带来的环境问题或灾害引发的生命和财产风险的容许标准作为环境承载力评价标准，开展环境承载力评价；基于单因素承载力评价结果，开展综合承载力评价，评价结果为安全承载、容许超载或不可接受超载；将综合承载力评价结果与区域国土空间开发现状或规划结果做叠加分析，划定区域发展三区三线。通过对绥德县资源环境承载力评价，结果表明，该理论框架与技术方法简便易推广，评价结果可信，可以为国土空间优化、科学划定“三条红线”提供支撑。Abstract: The national territory development plan needs to evaluate the resource environmental carrying capacity, which can provide basis for the delineation of so-called "three zones and three lines", that is the spaces for urban, agriculture and ecology, as well as the red lines of environmental protection, permanent basic farmland protection and urban development. The theory and method of resource environmental carrying capacity evaluation have received more and more attention from all stakeholders, but a complete theoretical framework has not yet been formed. This study introduces short-board theory, risk theory and marginal theory, develops the theoretical framework of resource environmental carrying capacity evaluation, and conducts empirical research with the Suide County of the Loess Plateau in Northern Shaanxi as the research area. Based on the short-board theory, we identify the major resource environmental problems in this region, and select 1-3 restrictive factors; On the basis of the marginal theory, we take the maximum profit or no-profit of resource development and utilization as the evaluation standards to carry out the evaluation of resource carrying capacity; According to the risk theory, the allowable standards of environmental issues brought about by human activities or of life and property risks caused by disasters are taken as the evaluation standards to carrying out the evaluation of environmental carrying capacity; By using the single factor carrying capacity evaluation results to carry out the comprehensive carrying capacity evaluation, the results can be classified as safe, overload or unacceptable three categories. The comprehensive carrying capacity evaluation results are overlapped with the regional terrestrial space development status or planning results, which can be used to delineate the "three districts and three lines" of regional development. The resource environmental carrying capacity evaluation results of Suide County show that the theoretical framework and technical method system are simple and easy to promote, and the evaluation results are credible, which can provide support for the optimization of terrestrial space development and the scientific delineation of the "three red lines".
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