Risk Mitigation Measures and Economic Decisions on Debris Flow——Taking Beigou of Jixian County, Shanxi Province as an Example
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摘要: 泥石流灾害危害性较大，合理的风险管控措施可减少其带来的损失。将泥石流的危险性分析、风险定量化评价、容许风险判别、风险减缓措施选择、监测预警和防治工程设计、费用-效益分析等地质学、工程学、社会学和经济学结合起来的案例研究还较少。鉴于此，以山西吉县城北沟泥石流为例，采用Lidar技术获取该流域高精度地形数据，通过野外调查、实地测试和计算，获取泥石流的各项参数。借助FLO-2D数值模拟软件对城北沟泥石流进行了危险性分区，圈定其威胁范围以获取易损值，从而定量计算其风险值。用容许风险标准进行判别，风险为"不可接受"，采取风险管控措施进行干预，预算得到各类措施的总费用及总效益，根据费用-效益分析的原则和方法，确定其净现值为508万元，实施风险减缓措施具有较好的经济效益，为政府和公众决策提供了参考依据。Abstract: Risk controlling measures reduce the losses caused by debris flow. Concerning the subjects of geology, engineering, sociology and economics, there are few case studies on debris flow from the aspects of the risk analysis, the risk quantitative assessment, the risk allowable identification, the risk mitigation measures selection, the monitoring and early warning engineering design and the cost-benefit analysis, etc. This paper takes the debris flow in Chengbei Gully of Jixian County, Shanxi Province as an example, using the Lidar technology to obtain the high-precision topographic data of the watershed and various parameters of the debris flow through field investigation, field tests and calculations. The FLO-2D numerical simulation software was used to divide the danger zones of the debris flow, delineating the threat range to obtain the vulnerability value, and then calculating quantitatively the risk value. When the allowable risk standard judges the risk as "unacceptable", risk controlling measures should be taken to intervene it. The total cost and the total benefit of various measures have been budgeted. According to the principles and methods of cost-benefit analysis, the net present value is determined to be RMB 5.08 million. The implementation of risk mitigation measures has economic benefits, providing references for the decision-making by the government and the public.
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