Analysis of Landslide Susceptibility and Accuracy in Different Combination Models
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摘要: 为探索区域滑坡易发性评价模型的适用性和评价结果的合理性，以滑坡灾害高发的白龙江流域为研究区，首先选取坡度、地形起伏度、距断层距离、地层岩性、流域沟壑密度、植被指数等6项影响滑坡发生的孕灾因子作为易发性的评价指标，以研究区2 093处滑坡灾害点为样本数据，依据各指标条件下的信息量值、确定性系数值和证据权重值曲线突变规律，并结合滑坡面积及分级面积频率比曲线作为等级划分的临界值来确定因子分级状态；其次，基于指标因子状态分级和相关性分析结果，采用信息量法、确定性系数法、证据权法分别与逻辑回归组合的3种模型开展区域滑坡灾害易发性评价，并从模型结果、适用性和精度等方面采用多手段对3种组合模型进行比较和讨论。研究结果表明：在区域滑坡易发性评价方面，3组模型均表现较为理想，信息量和逻辑回归组合模型的预测精度为94.6%，其预测精度和准确性优于其他2种组合模型。笔者以白龙江流域中游及其岷江支流段为例，开展滑坡灾害易发性评价模型适用性、评价结果分析以及预测精度评价对比和研究等，成果可为该区地质灾害防灾减灾和国土空间用途管制规划决策提供参考。Abstract: This paper carried out the studies in Bailong river basin,where landslide incidences frequently occurred, to explore the applicability and the rationality of the landslide susceptibility evaluation model.Six indicators of slope, top ographic relief, distance from fault, stratum lithology, watershed gully density and vegetation normalization index were selected assusceptibility evaluation indication. The authors took 2 093 landslide disaster points in the study area as sample data and determined the factor classification status by using the information value, deterministic coefficient value and the mutation law of evidence weight value curve, combined with the frequency ratio curve of the landslide area and the graded area as the criticality of the grading division value. Based on the state grade of each index and correlation analysis, three combination models with logistic regression, of information value method, deterministic coefficient method and evidence weight method were used to evaluate the susceptibility of regional landslide hazard.The three combination models were compared and discussed from the aspects of the results, the applicability and the accuracy.Results show that in the evaluation of regional landslide susceptibility, all the three models are ideal. The prediction accuracy of the combination model of information value method with logistic regressionis better than the other two combination models, with a prediction accuracy of94.6%. The results provide reference for geological disaster prevention and land use in this area.
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