ISSN 1009-6248CN 61-1149/P 双月刊

主管单位:中国地质调查局

主办单位:中国地质调查局西安地质调查中心
中国地质学会

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    数据驱动模型评价滑坡易发性的对比研究:以黄河中游流域为例

    Comparison Study in Landslide Susceptibility Assessment by Using Data-driven models: A Case Study from the Middle Stream of the Yellow River

    • 摘要: 准确的滑坡易发性图有益于管理部门开展土地利用规划和防灾减灾工作,目前已经成为了中国滑坡风险评估与管控的重点研究领域。本研究旨在对比分析不同数据驱动模型在区域滑坡易发性评估中的表现,以黄河中游流域为研究区,通过详细的野外调查结合遥感图像视觉解释,获得了包括684个历史滑坡点的数据库。选取了14个评价因子,利用Pearson相关系数分析了这些因素之间的相关性,应用C5.0决策树算法确定了各因素的重要性。选取了3种典型的数据驱动模型(加权信息量(WIV),支持向量机(SVM)和随机森林(RF))进行了区域滑坡易发性评价,并通过受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)及其曲线下面积AUC值来验证模型的性能。结果表明,距道路的距离、距河流的距离以及坡度是该地区滑坡发生最重要的贡献因素。大多数历史滑坡都发生在滑坡易发性图中的中等和高易发区内。SVM和RF模型获得的高/极高易发区内的滑坡点均超过总滑坡点的70%。RF模型表现最好,高易发性区占全区面积的21.9%,滑坡数量占全部历史滑坡点的90.5%。AUC精度的比较表明,RF模型的准确性高于其他两种模型:RF的AUC为0.904,而WIV和SVM的AUC分别为0.845和0.847。

       

      Abstract: Accurate landslide susceptibility maps are beneficial for management departments to carry out land use planning and disaster prevention and mitigation. It has been an important field in the landslide risk assessment and management in China. This study aims to compare and analyze the performance of different data-driven models in the assessment of regional landslide susceptibility. The middle reaches of the Yellow river were selected as the study area, and a database including 684 historical landslide points was obtained through detailed field investigation combined with visual interpretation of remote sensing images. 14 evaluation factors were selected, Pearson correlation coefficient was used to analyze the correlation between these factors, and the C5.0 decision tree algorithm was used to determine the importance of each factor. Three typical data-driven models (Weighted Information Volume (WIV), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Random Forest (RF)) were selected to evaluate the regional landslide susceptibility, and the performance of the models were verified by the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and the area AUC value under the curve. The results show that the distance from the road, the distance from the river and the slope are the most important contributing factors to the occurrence of landslides in this area. The majority of historical landslides occurred in the moderate and high susceptibility zones on the landslide susceptibility map. The landslide points in the high/very high susceptibility area obtained by SVM and RF models exceed 70% of the total landslide points. The RF model performed the best, with the high susceptibility area accounting for 21.9% of the area and the number of landslides accounting for 90.5% of all historical landslide points. A comparison of AUC accuracy shows that the RF model is more accurate than the other two models: RF has an AUC of 0.904, while WIV and SVM have AUCs of 0.845 and 0.847 respectively.

       

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