Deformation Characteristics and Prediction of Resurrection Conditions of Landslide Ⅲ-2 in Gaolan Mountain, Lanzhou
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摘要:
皋兰山滑坡是兰州市区最大的老滑坡群，滑坡前缘是兰州市区人口最密集地段之一。 近年来，受极端降水、绿化灌溉影响，滑坡局部出现变形迹象，以Ⅲ-2号变形最显著，对坡下居民生命财产安全构成直接威胁。笔者以现场监测数据基础，分析滑坡变形特征；基于滑坡未来可能遭遇的极端工况，基于定量方法，确定滑坡整体失稳条件。结果表明，地表开裂仅是局部落水洞扩展，裂缝变形并非与降雨入渗后滑体中含水量变化密切相关，当前整体稳定，日降雨量36 mm对滑坡变形没有影响。基于定量计算结果，皋兰山Ⅲ-2大规模复活的可能性较小；百年一遇降雨后，滑坡稳定性降低，但不会整体失稳；极低概率的特大暴雨后，滑坡可能复活；Ⅷ度地震影响后，滑坡可能复活。研究结果可为当地防灾减灾和国土空间用途管制提供依据。
Abstract:The Gaolan Mountain landslide is the largest group of old landslides in Lanzhou, and the landslide front is one of the most densely populated areas in Lanzhou. In recent years, affected by extreme precipitation and green irrigation, local deformation signs have appeared in landslides, with No. Ⅲ-2 deformation being the most significant, posing a direct threat to the safety of residents' lives and property under the slope. Based on on-site monitoring data, this paper analyzes the deformation characteristics of landslides. Based on the extreme working conditions that the landslide may encounter in the future, the overall instability conditions of the landslide are determined based on quantitative methods. The results show that the surface cracking is only the extension of the local tribal water hole, and the fracture deformation is not closely related to the change of water content in the slip body after rainfall infiltration, and the overall stability is currently stable, and the daily rainfall of 36 mm has no effect on the landslide deformation. Based on quantitative calculations, the large-scale resurrection of Gaolan Mountain Ⅲ-2 is less likely. After a once-in-a-century rainfall, the stability of landslides decreases, but it will not be unstable overall; After a very low probability of heavy rainfall, the landslide may be revived; After the impact of a magnitude Ⅷ earthquake, landslides may be revived. The research results can provide a basis for local disaster prevention and mitigation and land space use control.
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Keywords:
- loess slope /
- dynamic monitoring /
- water and soil relation /
- stability analysis /
- buckling mode
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图 3 滑坡后缘裂缝（a）及西侧裂缝（b）
Figure 3. (a) Cracks on the trailing edge and (b) west side of the landslide
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图 4 皋兰山Ⅲ-2滑坡监测点分布图
Figure 4. Distribution of monitoring sites of Gaolan Mountain Ⅲ-2 landslide
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图 5 皋兰山Ⅲ-2滑坡简易监测桩及探槽
a.滑坡简易监测桩；b.滑坡探槽
Figure 5. Simple monitoring piles and grooves for the Gaolan Mountain Ⅲ-2 landslide
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图 6 皋兰山Ⅲ-2滑坡典型地段地表变形监测曲线 （监测点3）
a.水平方向；b.垂直方向
Figure 6. Dynamic curve of GNSS03 monitoring point at the trailing edge of the Gaolan Mountain Ⅲ-2 landslide
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图 7 皋兰山Ⅲ-2号滑坡浅层土体含水率、基质吸力、降雨量变化曲线（监测点2）
Figure 7. Variation curves of moisture content, matric suction and rainfall of shallow soil of landslide No.Ⅲ-2, Gaolan Mountain
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图 9 百年一遇降雨工况下斜坡内孔隙水压力等值线
Figure 9. Contours of pore water pressure in slope under the condition of once-in-a-century rainfall
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图 10 临界降雨条件下斜坡失稳范围
Figure 10. Slope instability range under critical rainfall conditions
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图 11 临界降雨条件下斜坡区孔隙水压力等值线
Figure 11. Contours of pore water pressure in slope area under critical rainfall conditions
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图 12 0.2 g地震荷载下滑坡失稳部位（FS=0.905）
Figure 12. Landslide instability position under 0.2 g earthquake load (FS=0.905)
表 1 皋兰山Ⅲ-2号滑坡岩土体物理力学参数表
Table 1 Physical and mechanical parameters of rock and soil mass of Gaolan Mountain Ⅲ-2 landslide
分区 渗透系数（m/s） 饱和土含水量wsr 残余水含水率r 天然重度（KN/m3） 饱和重度（KN/m3） C（kPa） Φ（°） 滑体
（Ⅲ-2）1.1E-05 0.36 0.065 18.6 19.7 19 17.75 滑体
（Ⅲ）1.0E-05 0.37 0.065 18.9 20.1 30 24 滑体
（老狼沟）1.0E-05 0.37 0.065 18.9 20.1 35 33 滑带 5E-09 0.36 0.125 19.1 19.9 27.1 15.2 
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