ISSN 1009-6248CN 61-1149/P 双月刊

主管单位:中国地质调查局

主办单位:中国地质调查局西安地质调查中心
中国地质学会

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    镇域尺度下秦巴山区堆积层滑坡易发性不同单元评价性能对比研究

    Comparative Study on Evaluation Performance of Different Units of Susceptibility of Accumulation Layer Landslide in Qinba Mountain Area at Town Scale

    • 摘要: 秦巴山区堆积层滑坡数量多、分布广、密度大、频次高,所造成的危害十分严重,且具有孕灾条件复杂多样和部分灾害评价数据获取难度大等特征。笔者选取秦巴山区小岭镇作为研究区,在地质灾害野外调查基础上,结合堆积层滑坡区域特点,采取栅格、斜坡两种单元类型,因地制宜的提取了滑坡孕灾因子,分析其相关性,提选出坡度、坡高、坡面形态、斜坡结构类型、堆积层厚度、距道路、矿区、断裂的距离等8个因子作为堆积层滑坡特征因子,运用随机森林模型方法对该镇域进行了滑坡易发性评价;并通过评价结果频率比、ROC曲线、易发性概率均值与标准差,对栅格单元、斜坡单元两种单元类型的精度与准确性进行了验证,结果表明:两种评价单元的预测结果都有良好的表现,但斜坡单元作为评价单元总体预测性能高于栅格单元,栅格单元在灾害防治具体空间部署上有着更精细的参考。研究成果对秦巴山区镇域地质灾害风险评价工作有一定的理论和实践意义。

       

      Abstract: The accumulation layer landslides in Qinba Mountain area are abundant, widely distributed and frequently, and the harm caused by them is very serious. Moreover, it is characterized by complex and diverse disaster pregnancy conditions and difficult to obtain some disaster evaluation data. Xiaoling Town, Qinba Mountain, was selected as the research area. The geological hazard field survey was taken as the basis. Combined with the regional characteristics of accumulation landslide, two element types, grid element and slope element, are adopted. The landslide hazard factors were selected according to local conditions, and their correlation was analyzed. Eight factors, including slope, slope height, slope morphology, slope structure type, accumulation layer thickness, distance from road, mining area and fault, are selected as the characteristic factors of accumulation layer landslide. The random forest model method was used to evaluate the landslide susceptibility of the town area. In addition, the accuracy and accuracy of grid element and slope element were verified by frequency ratio, ROC curve, mean value and standard deviation of susceptibility probability of evaluation results. The results show that both evaluation elements have good performance in the re-prediction results, but the overall prediction performance of slope element as evaluation element is higher than that of grid element. In the specific spatial deployment of disaster prevention and control, more detailed reference comes from grid element. The research results have certain theoretical and practical significance for the risk assessment of geological hazards in towns in Qinba Mountains.

       

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